How the Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Subsea Cables and Gulf Connectivity

95% of global internet traffic relies on subsea cables, and the Gulf is a critical hub. But rising tensions between Iran and Israel are putting these vital networks at risk, threatening the GCC’s digital backbone and economic future. Here’s what you need to know:

• Key Risks: Subsea cables in shallow Gulf waters and chokepoints like the Red Sea are vulnerable to attacks, as seen in March 2025 when disruptions cut 17% of Asia-Europe data capacity.
• Economic Impact: Disruptions delay data flow, impacting businesses, financial systems, and cloud services. Repairing damaged cables can take months.
• Geopolitical Threats: Groups like the Houthis, backed by Iran, target cables and vessels, further complicating repairs and security.
• Solutions: GCC nations are diversifying routes, investing in satellite systems, and building overland networks to ensure resilience.

Protecting subsea cables is no longer optional. With USD 22 trillion in daily financial transactions relying on these systems, the Gulf must act now to secure its digital future.

Undersea Cables: The New Front in Global Power

Geopolitical Tensions and Subsea Cable Risks

The ongoing Iran–Israel conflict has placed Gulf subsea cables in a precarious position, with threats stemming from both direct attacks and proxy operations. Iran’s backing of regional groups like the Houthis underscores this danger. For instance, the Houthis, supported by Iran, pose a direct risk to undersea cables in both the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The shallow waters of the Gulf make these cables especially vulnerable, as they can be targeted using relatively basic underwater technology.

Major Subsea Cable Routes Under Threat

Key data routes, particularly in the Red Sea, highlight these vulnerabilities. This region has become a critical hub for global data flow, hosting over 15 subsea cables that carry 80% of Asia’s westward internet traffic - equivalent to 17% of global data transmission. This makes the Red Sea a prime target for disrupting international communications and economic activity.

On 4 March 2025, a Houthi attack on the Rubymar cable caused significant disruption, cutting 17% of Asia–Europe data capacity and 70% of regional traffic.

Coordinated attacks on cables like SEACOM, TGN, AAE-1, and EIG have disrupted 25% of telecommunications traffic across West Asia and North Africa (WANA). The Houthis have even shared maps of submarine cable networks, indicating deliberate and planned targeting efforts. Compounding this, just 16 undersea cables passing through Middle Eastern waterways handle 90% of Europe–Asia telecommunications, as well as a substantial portion of U.S. military communications. This heavy reliance creates a single point of failure that attackers can exploit.

Maritime Security Threats

The risks extend beyond the cables themselves to the broader maritime environment. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for both energy and data flows, is particularly vulnerable. Around 35% of the world’s seaborne crude oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this narrow chokepoint. This includes approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products daily, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the global supply.

Iran’s strategy seems to involve selective targeting. Intelligence reports suggest that Iranian forces may focus on vessels linked to the U.S. while allowing other commercial traffic to continue unharmed. This tactic applies political pressure while maintaining some level of international trade.

The threat landscape includes several attack methods, such as missile strikes on ships or deploying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the Houthis may track and target commercial vessels perceived as connected to the U.S. or Israel in the Arabian Sea and beyond. Such actions heighten risks for cable repair and maintenance ships, further complicating recovery efforts.

"Submarine cables get damaged all the time, but what was terrible was that they couldn't get a repair ship in because they were afraid they were going to get attacked."
– Paul Brodsky, Senior Research Manager at TeleGeography

This creates a domino effect: initial damage leads to extended outages due to security concerns. The U.S. military’s reliance on undersea cables - preferred for their speed and cost-effectiveness compared to satellites - means that disruptions can simultaneously affect both commercial and military communications. The shallow Red Sea routes, accessible to conventional maritime assets, further complicate repair efforts. Addressing these vulnerabilities is essential for ensuring secure and reliable communications across the GCC.

Effects on Gulf Data Infrastructure and Connectivity

Subsea cable disruptions create significant challenges for Gulf data centres by rerouting data through longer, less efficient paths.

Impact on Regional Data Centres

When subsea cables are damaged, Gulf data centres face noticeable delays as data is forced to travel through indirect routes. This increased latency disrupts time-sensitive applications like financial trading and cloud-based operations. The UAE and Oman, being key hubs for major subsea cables, enjoy a strategic edge but also face heightened risks during geopolitical conflicts.

Repairing cable breaks can take anywhere from six weeks to six months, causing prolonged difficulties for businesses and government entities in the region. Areas that depend on a single subsea cable or have limited interconnectivity are especially vulnerable. These challenges underline the importance of having robust and diversified data centre strategies, prompting providers to invest in backup systems.

Data Centre Provider Resilience

Gulf providers are enhancing their resilience by incorporating terrestrial and satellite backup systems. However, nearly half of public-sector organisations in the region still face challenges due to a lack of cybersecurity expertise.

Alternative Terrestrial Routes and Regional Plans

GCC countries are actively working on alternative solutions to reduce dependence on subsea cables. Saudi Arabia leads the way in the data centre market, accounting for nearly 80% of the region's total power capacity. As part of Vision 2030, it has invested heavily in overland fibre networks. Meanwhile, the UAE is focusing on satellite-based redundancy, with new GEO satellites expected to be operational by 2027–28 .

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are emerging as a promising option, offering low-latency connections suitable for financial services, AI-driven technologies, and smart city infrastructure. Regional partnerships are also gaining momentum. For example, OQ Technology joined forces with Saudi Arabia's Aramco Digital in February 2025 to integrate satellite IoT solutions across energy and infrastructure sectors.

The region's data centre capacity already exceeds 850 MW, with projections to reach around 3.5 GW and investments of approximately AED 31.2 billion in new centres by 2027. These efforts reflect a strong commitment to overcoming vulnerabilities and enhancing digital connectivity.

"Businesses' profitability and capacity to innovate are going to become increasingly dependent on subsea infrastructure."
– AJG Dubai

To effectively manage the risks of subsea cable disruptions, companies must diversify their connectivity routes and adopt robust cable health monitoring systems.

Protection Strategies for GCC Nations

With subsea cables playing a vital role in global connectivity, recent incidents have highlighted the pressing need for stronger protection measures. The vulnerabilities at key chokepoints, previously discussed, call for immediate action. Below are strategies designed to address these risks and build resilience.

Cable Route Diversification and Monitoring

One of the most effective ways to safeguard subsea cable networks is through route diversification. By creating multiple pathways, the impact of a single outage can be minimised. The Middle East, with its strategic location linking Europe, Asia, and Africa, naturally serves as a major hub for subsea cables. Terrestrial routes provide an additional layer of redundancy, ensuring connectivity even during disruptions. For example, Gulf Broadband Infrastructure's North Express Route (NER) has achieved a 30% latency reduction compared to its South Route, showcasing the benefits of optimised routing.

Hybrid networks that combine terrestrial and subsea systems further enhance security. A recent collaboration between Telecom Egypt and Zain Omantel in January 2024 exemplifies this approach. They established a high-capacity transport network connecting the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea via Equinix's MC1 data centre in Muscat, offering an alternative path for data transmission. Similarly, the Pentagon's use of unmanned platforms to monitor subsea and surface activities around undersea cables could serve as a model for GCC nations to strengthen their surveillance systems.

In addition to physical route diversification, fostering regional and global partnerships is critical for comprehensive protection.

Regional and Global Partnerships

Joint efforts among GCC nations are essential for creating a unified defence system against threats to subsea cables. A coordinated approach, similar to NATO's Maritime Centre for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure established in February 2024, could enhance information sharing and deter potential risks. Establishing a regional maritime operations centre, inspired by the aerial common operating picture at US Central Command's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, could significantly improve monitoring and response capabilities across the Middle East.

"The Middle East is uniquely positioned at the crossroads of major cable routes linking Europe, Asia and Africa, offering a distinct geographical advantage when it comes to the delivery of low-latency, high-capacity data transmission, both between these regions and from further afield."
– Ivo Ivanov, DE-CIX CEO

Global partnerships with telecom operators also play a significant role in bolstering the region's digital infrastructure. Organisations like the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC) have already laid the groundwork with initiatives such as the International Advisory Body for Submarine Cable Resilience. Increased collaboration between regional and international stakeholders can enable proactive defences against emerging threats.

Regulatory Frameworks and Backup Systems

Enhanced cybersecurity measures are on the horizon, set to be implemented in 2025. These include stricter data protection laws, standardised cybersecurity protocols, improved supply chain security, and mandatory cyber incident reporting.

Quick repair systems are equally crucial. Each year, 150–200 cable faults occur, primarily due to commercial activities. Streamlining repair processes through fast-track permits and closer cooperation between operators and governments can significantly reduce downtime. The ICPC has been actively advocating for stronger partnerships to simplify repair operations and improve security measures.

Building redundancy through backup systems and detailed incident response plans is another key step. These plans should encompass preparation, detection, containment, recovery, and continuous improvement. Encouraging information sharing between businesses and security agencies further strengthens cyber defences. Investments in terrestrial networks, interconnected data centres, and adherence to frameworks like NIST or ISO 27001 add additional layers of security and resilience.

"Submarine cables carry over 99 per cent of international data exchanges, making their resilience a global imperative."
– Doreen Bogdan-Martin, ITU Secretary-General

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel highlight vulnerabilities in the Gulf's digital infrastructure. With submarine cables carrying over 95% of global internet traffic, safeguarding these vital connections is no longer optional - it's a pressing necessity.

To address these challenges, GCC nations need to act decisively. Accelerating digitalisation, diversifying submarine cable routes, and enhancing regional monitoring systems are critical steps. Partnerships like the Quad's USD 140 million investment demonstrate the importance of international collaboration. Alongside these efforts, advanced technologies such as DAS, C-OFDR, and autonomous underwater vehicles are essential for early threat detection and continuous monitoring. These measures are particularly critical, given the staggering USD 22 trillion in daily financial transactions that rely on these systems.

Investing in secure digital infrastructure is not just about security - it's also a driver of economic growth. Studies show that increasing broadband penetration by just 10% can boost GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points. For GCC countries pursuing bold economic transformation goals, protecting their digital backbone is crucial to sustaining their ambitions in an interconnected global economy.

Regional cooperation plays an equally important role. Initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the EU's Global Gateway provide platforms for strengthening connectivity and sharing security responsibilities. These frameworks underscore the importance of unified action to counter growing threats. As a critical hub connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa, the Gulf holds a unique position in global data flows. However, this advantage comes with the responsibility to ensure resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding geopolitical challenges.

"The increasing dependency of our societies on undersea infrastructure means we need to do more to enhance their security." – Jens Stoltenberg, then-NATO Secretary-General

The Gulf nations' experience in managing volatility in industries like aviation and energy offers valuable insights for building robust digital systems. To succeed, they must adopt strategies that not only improve digital skills and strengthen regulations but also establish reliable backup systems to mitigate risks. Flexibility to adapt to emerging threats will be key.

The urgency cannot be overstated. Between 2023 and 2025, approximately 300,000 kilometres of undersea cables valued at USD 10 billion are set to become operational. Taking swift, decisive action now will secure the Gulf's digital future. Delays, on the other hand, could leave the region vulnerable to the next wave of geopolitical shocks.

FAQs

What steps are Gulf nations taking to protect subsea cables from potential threats linked to Iran-Israel tensions?

Gulf nations are taking proactive steps to protect subsea cables and maintain seamless connectivity, especially as geopolitical tensions continue to rise. Their approach focuses on tightening cybersecurity frameworks, modernising essential infrastructure, and promoting regional collaboration to minimise potential risks.

Here’s what’s being prioritised:

• Adopting advanced technologies to monitor and safeguard undersea communication systems.
• Preparing specialised response teams to handle potential disruptions effectively.
• Partnering with international organisations to strengthen resilience and exchange expertise.

In addition, countries within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are working towards unified policies and regulations for submarine cable operators. This initiative aims to reinforce the region’s digital infrastructure against growing threats. These measures underscore the critical need for resilience planning to secure the Gulf’s vital connectivity.

How could disruptions to subsea cables affect the Gulf region's economy and connectivity?

Disruptions to subsea cables can ripple through the Gulf region, affecting everything from internet access to financial transactions and regional trade. These networks are the backbone of the region’s connectivity, and any interruption could mean economic losses, delayed communications, and even instability in financial markets.

Beyond the immediate economic effects, repairing damaged cables and upgrading security measures can drive up operational costs for both businesses and governments. Given the Gulf's reliance on digital infrastructure to stay connected globally, resilience planning and proactive risk management are crucial to protect the region’s economic stability and technological progress.

Can satellite systems and overland networks provide reliable alternatives to subsea cables for the GCC?

Satellite systems and overland networks are emerging as strong alternatives to subsea cables in the GCC, particularly given the challenges posed by geopolitical risks. Advances in satellite technology, such as the integration of AI and multi-orbit systems, now provide reliable, high-capacity connectivity that can sidestep the vulnerabilities of undersea routes. With significant investments driving improvements in coverage and performance, the global satellite market is expanding at a fast pace.

At the same time, overland networks are gaining momentum as regional initiatives focus on building terrestrial routes to complement existing subsea infrastructure. These land-based networks not only reduce reliance on undersea cables but also enhance overall connectivity in the region. Together, satellite systems and overland networks play a pivotal role in maintaining uninterrupted digital infrastructure across the Gulf, especially during times of heightened regional tensions. To address these challenges, GCC nations are increasingly prioritising diverse and flexible connectivity solutions to secure their digital future.

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