Red Sea Risks and the Future of Submarine Cables: Should the Gulf Prepare for Land-Based Redundancy?
The Red Sea's undersea cables face severe risks from geopolitical tensions and natural disasters, prompting GCC nations to seek alternative connectivity solutions.
The Red Sea is a critical digital link between Europe and Asia, carrying 17% of global data traffic and supporting 80% of Asia’s westward internet traffic. However, recent incidents, like the February 2024 Houthi attacks that severed four major cables, exposed the vulnerabilities of this infrastructure. These disruptions impacted 70% of Europe–Asia data flow, cutting off internet access for millions and costing billions in losses.
For GCC nations, whose digital economies are growing rapidly, this dependency on fragile undersea cables poses a serious risk. With regional e-commerce revenues reaching $30 billion in 2023 and digital payment transactions projected to hit $16.62 trillion by 2028, reliable connectivity is essential.
Key Takeaways:
- Main Threats: Geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, and high repair costs.
- Recent Incidents: Houthi-related damage in 2024 disrupted connectivity for 17 African nations.
- Solutions: Develop land-based fibre routes (e.g., through Iraq or Turkey) and satellite backups to reduce reliance on subsea cables.
The Gulf must act now to secure its digital infrastructure through alternative routes, faster repairs, and stronger regional cooperation. This is not just about avoiding future disruptions but ensuring the region’s position as a global connectivity hub.
Houthis Damage 4 Key Undersea Internet Cables; Arab Nations, India Worst Affected: Report
Main Threats to Red Sea Submarine Cables
The submarine cables running through the Red Sea are critical to GCC connectivity, but they face significant risks that could disrupt the region’s digital lifelines. These vulnerabilities are driving regional leaders to consider alternatives to safeguard their digital future.
Deliberate Attacks and Political Conflicts
One of the most pressing threats comes from intentional attacks linked to regional conflicts. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, a vital chokepoint where many submarine cables converge, has become a hotspot for potential disruptions.
Between November 2023 and March 2025, Houthi rebels carried out over 300 attacks on commercial and military vessels in the area. These actions led to a staggering 55% drop in international traffic through the strait. A particularly devastating incident occurred in February 2024, when a Houthi missile attack sank the British bulk carrier Rubymar. As the ship sank, its anchor dragged across the seabed, damaging four undersea cables. This single event disrupted data traffic and digital connectivity for 17 African nations.
Emily Milliken, SVP at Askari Defence & Intelligence, highlighted the alarming rhetoric from the Houthis:
"They didn't directly threaten the subsea cables. But they alluded to the fact that they were so important in the area. Which, for an organisation that has been launching maritime attacks, is obviously a concerning statement".
Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst at the Crisis Group, reinforced the seriousness of the risk:
"It's essential to consider all possibilities. The Houthis might indeed pose a threat to subsea cables, especially if tensions in the maritime lanes escalate further".
This threat is particularly concerning for GCC nations. Countries like India, Kenya, and the UAE rely on Red Sea cables for over 40% of their interregional bandwidth to Europe. The relatively shallow waters of the Red Sea make these cables more vulnerable to sabotage or accidental damage.
Natural Disasters and Weather Events
Natural disasters, such as undersea earthquakes and tsunamis, are another major hazard. Despite being engineered to withstand significant pressure, submarine cables are still susceptible to severe weather events in the Red Sea region that can physically damage or disrupt their functionality.
These cables are essential, carrying more than 99% of the world’s international internet traffic and over 80% of global telephone communication. Any disruption caused by natural disasters can have far-reaching consequences. Unlike deliberate attacks, these events are unpredictable and can simultaneously damage multiple sections of a cable system, making repairs even more challenging.
What makes natural disasters particularly problematic is the lack of warning. A single event can cause widespread damage along a cable’s route, complicating repair efforts - especially in a region already grappling with geopolitical instability.
Repair Costs and Access Problems
Fixing damaged submarine cables is an expensive and time-intensive process. On average, it takes about two weeks to repair a subsea cable, but this timeline can stretch longer in geopolitically sensitive areas or during extreme weather conditions.
The financial implications are staggering. Every minute of downtime costs businesses an average of $5,600. Disruptions in the Red Sea in early 2023 affected nearly 25% of the region’s total data flow, resulting in an estimated loss of $3.5 billion. Deploying a repair vessel can cost tens of thousands of dollars per day.
Adding to the challenge are rising insurance premiums and a global shortage of repair ships. For example, damage to the SEACOM, TGN, AAE-1, and EIG cables has already disrupted 25% of telecommunications traffic in West Asia and North Africa (WANA).
Geopolitical tensions further complicate repair efforts. Ships tasked with fixing cables must navigate conflict zones, secure necessary clearances, and often wait for safe passage. These obstacles make timely repairs increasingly difficult.
Given these challenges, it’s becoming clear that GCC nations urgently need to explore reliable land-based alternatives to ensure the resilience of their digital infrastructure.
Alternative Connectivity Options for the GCC
With growing concerns over the vulnerabilities of undersea cables, decision-makers in the GCC are exploring land-based and satellite options to ensure reliable connectivity. Each option comes with its own balance of cost, speed, and reliability, requiring careful consideration.
Overland Fiber Cable Routes
Building terrestrial fiber networks offers a more secure and accessible alternative to undersea cables. These networks are easier to maintain, less prone to sabotage, and provide additional redundancy. They could also create "super corridors" linking the Mediterranean to the Arabian Gulf, boosting digital economies in cities like Dubai, Riyadh, and Jeddah, while bypassing the Red Sea route that currently handles a significant portion of Europe-to-Asia communications.
However, past initiatives have faced hurdles. For instance, Google’s $400 million Blue-Raman cable project, launched in 2020, aimed to connect Mumbai, India, to Genoa, Italy, via the Indian Ocean, Djibouti, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the Mediterranean. Despite its ambition, the project encountered challenges such as geopolitical and regulatory complexities, technical difficulties, and questions about commercial viability.
One major issue is the lack of open-access backhaul infrastructure. Carrier-neutral colocation facilities are critical to reducing interconnection costs between undersea and terrestrial networks, but these remain insufficient in the region.
Satellite Internet as a Backup
Satellite internet offers a dependable backup option, especially in emergencies or natural disasters. The technology has seen rapid growth, with Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites now offering lower latency suitable for 5G applications. This makes it a practical supplement to terrestrial networks.
That said, satellite internet has limitations. While it provides global coverage without requiring extensive ground infrastructure, it cannot match the reliability, scalability, and low latency of terrestrial fiber networks. Fiber networks are immune to atmospheric disruptions and space debris, making them more dependable. Additionally, satellite internet can be costlier, particularly when bandwidth usage exceeds limits.
The GCC is well-placed to take advantage of satellite technology. By 2027, 75% of GCC residents are expected to be 5G subscribers, rising to 86% by 2028. Kuwait, for example, has already shown its potential, ranking third globally for mobile internet speed in early 2025, with a median download speed of approximately 309 Mbps on cellular networks.
GCC Data Centre Providers and Network Growth
The GCC’s data centre market is expanding rapidly, but demand continues to outpace supply by over 40%. This gap creates opportunities for new entrants to introduce fresh approaches rather than relying on traditional methods.
Emerging data centre providers in the region are focusing on flexible and environmentally friendly solutions. They aim to build interoperable infrastructure that bridges Eastern and Western technologies, ensuring adaptability and resilience.
Collaboration among regional players is also improving connectivity. For instance, Ooredoo is developing a submarine cable linking seven countries - Qatar, Oman, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq. Aziz Aluthman Fakhroo, Group CEO of Ooredoo, highlighted the project’s importance:
"This historic project aligns with Ooredoo's ambitious strategy to lead in digital infrastructure by expanding network capacity and interconnectivity across the GCC and beyond".
Governments in the region are increasingly aware of the need for supportive policies. By offering incentives for investment in critical hardware and advanced HPC data centres, they can address local demand. Additionally, aggregating national data for companies to train and refine large language models (LLMs) could further strengthen the region’s digital infrastructure.
These strategies highlight the GCC’s potential to diversify and fortify its connectivity landscape, paving the way for a more resilient internet infrastructure.
How GCC Countries Can Build Better Internet Infrastructure
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is making strides in digital transformation, which calls for robust IT infrastructure to support this growth. With submarine cables handling nearly 95% of global internet traffic, the region must focus on strategies to minimise disruptions and build redundancy into its networks.
Using Multiple Internet Routes
Ensuring uninterrupted internet access requires diversifying connectivity paths. The UAE is a prime example, with 17 undersea cables connecting at five different locations, contributing to its impressive 99% internet penetration rate. This approach ensures that if one cable fails, others can step in to maintain service.
The Ooredoo Group's Fibre in Gulf (FIG) submarine cable project highlights such diversification efforts. This project connects seven countries - Qatar, Oman, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq - via a cutting-edge network capable of handling up to 720Tbps through 24 fibre pairs. Paul Gabla, chief sales and marketing officer at ASN, explained the project's importance:
"The FIG cable represents a major step forward in the digital evolution of the GCC. Our collaboration with Ooredoo focuses on deploying advanced subsea technology to enhance network security, resilience, and overall performance. We look forward to working closely with Ooredoo to create a state-of-the-art infrastructure that will position the region as a global connectivity hub".
Additionally, implementing cloud-based disaster recovery solutions can further strengthen redundancy efforts.
Working Together on Cable Security
While diversifying routes is essential, protecting these cables through collective security measures is equally important. Since submarine cables often cross multiple borders, regional collaboration is key. The International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit 2025 endorsed the Abuja Declaration, which emphasises timely repairs, risk monitoring, and promoting geographic diversity in connectivity.
GCC countries can enhance security by adopting advanced monitoring technologies and data-driven risk assessments. Singapore's Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing highlighted the need for comprehensive protection:
"There's no point trying to defend the integrity and security of a submarine cable by looking at a point. We need both ends to be secure".
To strengthen resilience, the region should create shared cybersecurity standards, foster public-private partnerships for innovation, and streamline regulatory processes to enable quicker cross-border coordination for cable repairs.
Updating Laws for Faster Cable Repairs
Outdated regulatory frameworks often delay critical cable repair work. The International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC) recommends that governments work with operators to identify and mitigate risks, expedite repair permits, and secure vessels involved in repairs.
GCC nations should establish transparent regulations with clear deadlines and requirements. Ratifying the 1884 Cable Protection Convention and ensuring cables are marked on nautical charts can help minimise damage from fishing and anchoring activities.
Environmental policies should also account for cable resilience. For example, California and Oregon mandate regular re-inspections to ensure cables remain buried, while Florida restricts cable landings in sensitive areas like the Keys. The GCC must find a balance between protecting the environment and securing its digital infrastructure.
Encouraging investment in diverse cable routes is another way to improve network resilience and close connectivity gaps. These regulatory reforms can draw from successful global practices to build a more robust framework.
Learning from Other Regions' Experiences
The February 2024 Red Sea incident serves as a stark reminder of vulnerabilities. In this case, multiple cables were severed when anchors from a cargo vessel sunk by Houthi militants dragged along the seabed, drastically reducing internet capacity between Europe and Asia and disrupting activities like financial transactions and video calls.
The European Union offers valuable lessons in cable diplomacy, focusing on repair coordination, incident reporting, regulatory alignment, and infrastructure development. Denmark's efficient permitting processes and France's streamlined approvals showcase effective regulatory models.
To avoid similar challenges, the GCC should establish clear leadership structures and promote information sharing between governments and private sectors. With the region expected to see strong growth in 2025, driven by non-oil investments, building resilient infrastructure is more important than ever.
Continuous improvement will be crucial. This includes setting measurable goals through key performance indicators (KPIs) and gathering feedback to refine strategies. Investing in STEM education and vocational training can also ensure a skilled workforce to support these advanced projects. By taking these steps, the GCC can better safeguard its digital infrastructure against future challenges.
Preparing GCC Internet Infrastructure for Future Risks
The GCC region stands at a pivotal point in its digital transformation journey, with its internet infrastructure facing mounting challenges. A staggering 90% of data traffic between Europe and Asia relies on Red Sea cables, making the region's connectivity highly vulnerable. The February 2024 Houthi attack on the UK-owned Rubymar vessel underscored this fragility. The vessel's anchor damaged multiple cables, disrupting 70% of data traffic in the process.
"The impact of this (Houthi attack) event has been felt across the globe as everyone starts to focus on real cable diversity and the importance of both subsea and terrestrial infrastructure to our economies and to national security".
Tony O'Sullivan, Chief Executive of RETN, highlighted the global implications of such incidents, stressing the need for immediate diversification of connectivity routes.
To address these vulnerabilities, the industry is actively investigating alternative pathways. Proposed solutions include terrestrial cable routes through Iraq and Turkey or via Iraq, Armenia, Georgia, and the Black Sea, providing essential redundancy away from the volatile Red Sea corridor.
The economic stakes are high. The GCC wires and cables market, valued at USD 5.36 billion in 2024, is forecasted to almost double, reaching USD 9.87 billion by 2033. This growth reflects the region's commitment to strengthening its digital infrastructure beyond reliance on submarine cables.
"We are going to be building a combination of submarine and terrestrial routes, that provide the much-needed redundancy and resiliency that our customer demand".
Cengiz Oztelcan, CEO of Gulf Bridge International, reinforced the importance of a balanced approach that combines undersea and land-based connectivity.
Collaboration among GCC nations will be the cornerstone of success. This includes not only building new physical infrastructure but also implementing supportive regulations and competitive pricing. Beyond cables, the focus must also shift to developing data centres capable of meeting hyperscaler demands, positioning the Gulf as a global connectivity hub.
Government investment in utilities and digitalisation will play a critical role in this transformation. As GCC countries aim to boost the digital sector’s GDP contribution and enhance government services, the underlying infrastructure must be robust enough to withstand natural disasters and geopolitical pressures.
The road ahead requires fast-tracking terrestrial cable projects, fostering regional partnerships, and simplifying regulatory processes. The cost of failing to act - measured in economic losses and digital isolation - is far greater than the investment needed to build a resilient and redundant network.
FAQs
Why are submarine cables in the Red Sea vulnerable, and what impact does this have on global internet connectivity?
Submarine cables in the Red Sea face heightened risks due to a mix of geopolitical tensions - like sabotage or intentional damage during regional conflicts - and accidental human interference, such as damage from ships anchoring or fishing activities. These challenges make the cables prone to frequent disruptions.
The consequences of these vulnerabilities are far-reaching. The Red Sea serves as a vital pathway for global internet traffic connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa. Any disruption can impact up to 70% of the region's data flow, causing slower internet speeds, service interruptions, and economic setbacks for businesses that depend on seamless connectivity. For Gulf nations, this highlights the need to prioritise alternative solutions, such as land-based fibre networks or satellite systems, to build a more dependable digital infrastructure.
What steps can GCC countries take to protect against disruptions in submarine cable connectivity?
GCC countries have a promising opportunity to strengthen their digital infrastructure by focusing on land-based redundancy solutions. One key approach is building terrestrial fibre optic networks that interconnect major data hubs across the region. These networks provide a dependable alternative to undersea cables, reducing exposure to environmental or geopolitical risks and ensuring smoother, more reliable connectivity.
Another valuable option lies in satellite technologies, especially Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. These satellites deliver global coverage and operate with minimal reliance on ground-based infrastructure, making them an excellent safeguard against disruptions. By integrating terrestrial networks with satellite systems, GCC nations can create a more resilient framework, ensuring uninterrupted digital connectivity in today’s highly connected world.
How do satellite internet and data centres strengthen the GCC's digital infrastructure and reduce reliance on submarine cables?
Satellite internet services, like Starlink, are becoming essential in strengthening the GCC's digital infrastructure. They offer an alternative to traditional undersea cables, which are more prone to disruptions, especially in geopolitically sensitive areas such as the Red Sea. This added layer of connectivity is crucial for maintaining reliable communication channels in the region.
At the same time, data centres across the GCC are shifting their focus towards regional security, sustainability, and flexibility. New providers are introducing forward-thinking solutions and adaptable infrastructure, giving businesses the tools they need to diversify their digital operations. By combining satellite internet with these advanced data centre strategies, the GCC is creating a more resilient and future-proof digital landscape, reducing its reliance on submarine cables and ensuring consistent connectivity.